Comparative Analysis of Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models for Tourism Demand Forecasting with Economic Indicators

This study addresses the critical need for accurate tourism demand (TD) forecasting in Bulgaria using economic indicators, developing robust predictive models to navigate post-pandemic market volatility. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed tourism’s vulnerability to systemic shocks, highlighting deficiencies in traditional forecasting approaches. Bulgaria’s tourism industry, characterized by strong seasonal variations and economic sensitivity, requires enhanced methodologies for strategic planning in uncertain environments. The research employs comprehensive comparative analysis of machine learning (ML) and deep machine learning (DML) methodologies. Monthly overnight stay data from Bulgaria’s National Statistical Institute (2005–2024) were integrated with COVID-19 case data, Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Bulgarian Gross Domestic Product (GDP) variables for the same period. Multiple approaches were implemented including Prophet with external regressors, Ridge regression, LightGBM, and gradient boosting models using inverse MAE weighting optimization, alongside deep learning architectures such as Bidirectional LSTM with attention mechanisms and XGBoost configurations, as each model statis