Statistical Forecasting of 137Cs Accumulation in Crop Production on Radioactively Contaminated Lands

Purpose: the development of statistical models for forecasting the accumulation of 137Cs in crop production, model parameterisation and prognostic estimates for the territories of the Bryansk region contaminated with 137Cs because of the Chernobyl accident. Material and methods: The use of a probabilistic approach for correct predictive assessments of the safety of agricultural products from radioactively contaminated agricultural lands has been substantiated. Analytical models were developed in the framework of a probabilistic approach to predict the risks of radioactive contamination of crop products, to assess the permissible levels of contamination of arable lands and the time of their natural remediation. Results: Based on a statistical analysis of radioecological survey data, it was established that the 137Cs contamination density of the soil follows a lognormal distribution law with a high level of significance. For farms in the south-western districts of the Bryansk region, it was shown that, if the average values of 137Cs content in crop production corresponded to the established standard, the risks of its excess could reach 30 %. This is due to the variability of 137Cs