STATISTICAL METHODS FOR PREDICTING PHISHING ATTACKS

The article proposes a methodology for predicting so-called phishing attacks, which are a common form of cybercrime, the number of which is growing every year, and the level of their harmful impact on the information systems of critical infrastructure objects is also increasing. To analyze trends and predict phishing attacks, we used statistical data published in scientific works of domestic and foreign researchers, as well as published by online publications of leading consulting companies working in the field of information security and cybersecurity. Statistical methods based on the use of time series, as one of the popular approaches used to predict various technological and economic processes, were chosen as tools for researching and predicting phishing attacks. This made it possible to analyze the types and patterns of phishing attacks that attackers use to disrupt the operation of software of information and communication systems and automated systems. Based on time series analysis, a trend model was built for the number of detected phishing attacks for the period 2020–2023. A calculation was made of the predicted number of phishing attacks for 16 quarters of 2020–2023, as w