PREDICTIVE MICROBIOLOGY OF FOOD

Abstract The beginnings of predictive microbiology date back to 1920 when Bigelow developed a logarithmic-linear dependence of kinetics on the death of microorganisms. Predictive microbiology is a sub-discipline of food microbiology, whose task is to predict the behavior of microorganisms in food using mathematical models. The predictive model for microbiology is usually a simplified description of the correlation between the observed reactions and the factors responsible for the occurrence of these reactions. There are several main conceptual models (empirical vs. mechanistic, stochastic vs. deterministic, dynamic vs. static), in which there are model divisions depending on the type of examined microorganism or the nature of the problems caused by microbes (kinetic vs. probabilistic), described variables (first, secondary and tertiary) or the influence of environmental factors on microbial populations (growth, survival, inactivation). The new generations of models include molecular and genomic models, transfer models, Artificial Neural Network, interactions between species, and single cell models. The process of creating a mathematical model req