Climate variability in civil infrastructure planning

An understanding of climate variability – both man-made and natural – is vital in the planning of major water infrastructure and other civil engineering works. While there has been extensive modelling in recent years of mankind's potential effects on climate, studies of natural variability have not been given the same prominence. In the light of wider availability of climate data and an increased ability to process such data, this paper revisits the effects of natural variability. Using African examples it shows that clear natural cycles can be identified which, when combined with possible anthropomorphic effects, can provide civil engineers with far better long-term climate predictions.