ABSTRACT The long-term population genetics of multigene families is influenced by several biased and unbiased mechanisms of nonreciprocal exchanges (gene conversion, unequal exchanges, transposition) between member genes, often distributed on several chromosomes. These mechanisms cause fluctuations in the copy number of variant genes in an individual and lead to a gradual replacement of an original family of n genes (A) in N number of individuals by a variant gene (a). The process for spreading a variant gene through a family and through a population is called molecular drive. Consideration of the known slow rates of nonreciprocal exchanges predicts that the population variance in the copy number of gene a per individual is small at any given generation during molecular drive. Genotypes at a given generation are expected only to range over a small section of all possible genotypes from one extreme (n number of A) to the other (n number of a). A theory is developed for estimating the size of the population variance by using the concept of identity coefficients. In particular, the variance in the course of spreading of a single mutant gene of a multigene family was inv
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