Summary Aims To determine risk factors for the development of persistent microalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate (AER) ≥ 30 μg/min) in Type 1 diabetes mellitus. Methods One hundred and forty‐eight initially normotensive Type 1 diabetic patients with normal albumin excretion (< 30 μg/min) were followed prospectively in hospital diabetes outpatient clinics for a median of 7 years. Main outcome measures were: progression to persistent microalbuminuria (albumin excretion rate ≥ 30 μg/min on at least two consecutive occasions); rate of change of albumin excretion rate; development of arterial hypertension (systolic blood pressure > 160 mmHg and/or diastolic blood pressure > 95 mmHg or commencement of antihypertensive therapy). Results In a median follow‐up period of 7 years (range 6 months to 8 years), 14 patients progressed to persistent microalbuminuria, a cumulative incidence of 11% (95% confidence interval 6.36–16.94). AER remained persistently < 30 μg/min in 109 subjects and 25 developed intermittent microalbuminuria. In those who developed persistent microalbuminuria, baseline AER (16.2 (13.9–19.1) vs. 5.2 (3.8–9.2) μg/min, P < 0.01), blood pressure (136 (123–148)/
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