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Spatiotemporal Machine Learning Approaches for Atmospheric Composition Emulation in NASA GISS ModelE

Mohammad H. Erfani, Kara D. Lamb, Susanne E. Bauer, Kostas Tsigaridis, Marcus van Lier‐Walqui, Gavin Schmidt · Journal of Geophysical Research: Machine Learning and Computation · 2026

Abstract Earth System Models (ESMs) rely on parameterizations to represent sub‐grid scale processes that cannot be explicitly resolved at typical model resolutions. However, maintaining full coupling between these parameterizations and other model components creates substantial computational demands. This challenge is particularly acute for atmospheric composition modules, where numerous aerosol species and constituents must be advected and processed at each model timestep. The resulting computational overhead severely constrains the feasibility of conducting long‐term, high‐resolution climate projections. To address these computational limitations, the NASA GISS‐E3 (ModelE) employs a Non‐Interactive Tracer (NINT) methodology, utilizing pre‐calculated monthly climatologies of atmospheric composition fields. While computationally efficient, this approach eliminates the dynamic feedbacks between meteorological variability and chemical processes. This work introduces a machine learning (ML) framework designed to bridge this gap by creating a “Smart‐NINT” system. Our approach leverages neural networks to approximate the advection, and removal terms that govern tracer

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