Near Real‐Time Mapping of All‐Sky Land Surface Temperature From GOES‐R Using Machine Learning

Abstract Land surface temperature (LST) is crucial for understanding earth system processes. We expanded the Advanced Baseline Imager Live Imaging of Vegetated Ecosystems (ALIVE) framework to estimate LST in near‐real‐time for both cloudy and clear sky conditions at a five‐minute resolution. We compared two machine learning (ML) models, Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) networks and Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), using top‐of‐atmosphere observations from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) on the GOES‐16 satellite against observations from hundreds of observation sites for a five‐year period. Long Short‐Term Memory outperformed GBR, especially at coarser resolutions and under challenging conditions, with a clear sky R 2 of 0.96 (RMSE 2.31K) and a cloudy sky R 2 of 0.83 (RMSE 4.10K) across CONUS, based on 10‐repeat Leave‐One‐Out Cross‐Validation (LOOCV). GBR maintained high accuracy and ran 5.3 times faster, with only a 0.01–0.02 R 2 drop. Feature importance revealed infrared bands were key in both models, with LSTM adapting dy