Adaptive decision-making: Bayesian Network Modeling for blue–green infrastructure selection in dynamic climate and land use context

Abstract Nature-based solutions are becoming increasingly recognized as effective tools for addressing various environmental problems. This study presents a novel approach to selecting optimal blue–green infrastructure (BGI) solutions tailored to the unique environmental and climatic challenges of Istanbul, Türkiye. The primary objective is to utilize a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model for assisting in the identification of the most effective BGI solutions, considering the city’s distinct environmental conditions and vulnerabilities to climate change. Our methodology integrates comprehensive data collection, including meteorological and land use data, and employs a BBN model to analyze and weigh the complex network of factors influencing BGI suitability. Key findings reveal the model’s capacity to effectively predict BGI applicability across diverse climate scenarios, with quantitative results demonstrating a notable enhancement in decision-making processes for urban sustainability. Quantitative results from our model reveal a significant improvement in decision-making accuracy, with a predictive accuracy rate of 82% in identifying suitable BGI solutions for va